Tuesday, April 27, 2010

A note......


China economy
Worst performing market among the BRIC countries - due to overheating in property prices - the long term prospect of China economy is remained positive - At the moment to avoid investment in construction & property. Good signed from China: consumption is consistently picking up - to over weight on consumer - Stimulus package valued at 4 trillion for 2.5 years economic stimulus package - very important that this package being channel to productive sectors. - China current population is 1 billion - US pressure China to revalue its currency; Renminbi.

Market outlook
Market is in consolidation territory - some worries: withdrawal of stimulus package, rising interest rate & inflation. The effect of Wold Cup on the market volume (market is expected to experience quiet moment (less trading) during the event.

US market
Surprisingly US is the best performing market where the Dow Jones moving towards 11,000 mark. Y? due to underlying recovery looks stronger, improve in unemployment rate.

Local bonds market
BNM is expected to increase the interest rate in May or July 2010. In normal scenario when the interest rate increases, the bond price will drop which leads to better yield. However this has yet to happen Y? Due to increase inflow of foreign funds, expectation of further strengthening in Ringgit which bring to higher demand in bond market.

Greece?
Need funding due to higher debt level in the country - EU countries have come together to help pump in money - the unique is that Greece cannot printing more many like US because it will effect other Euro countries. - As such there is a limit in printing the money for the country.

Thailand?
The crisis has long being built in the economy and there will be no spillover effect towards the neighbouring countries - It is proven that the Thailand stock market is not affected with the Red Shirt protest campaign in the city. Moreover, the market has performed better as compared to Malaysia.

Malaysia?
Look for positive announcement from the government on the 2nd edition of economic plan and 10th Malaysia Plan.

It is just my opinion....................

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